U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Feeling the squeeze

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stocks continue to recover from a distressing May on increasing dovishness from central bankers and signs of stimulus in China, but tariffs remain a mixed bag. United Technologies and Raytheon have agreed to a merger valued at roughly $90 billion that will create the second-largest U.S. defense-aerospace company after Boeing. Investors apparently aren’t thrilled with the prospect of the combined business as both companies faced notable losses yesterday.

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U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hiring faded across the board in May. This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

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Investment Insights: You can fight the Fed

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Financial markets are breathing a momentary sigh of relief after one of the biggest negative months in recent memory for stocks.

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Instant Analysis: Fed Chair Powell open to reducing rates

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that the Fed is closely monitoring rising global trade disputes and the potential fallout on the U.S. economy.

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