U.S. Outlook: What the employment report is telling us
My main focus in this week’s U.S. Outlook is the September employment report and what it could mean for our country’s economic future.
Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 25, 2013.Key observations:
- There was little to cheer about in September’s jobs numbers, and there is more bad news to come due to the government shutdown and brinksmanship over the debt ceiling.
- The disappointing job growth in September and hit to confidence and GDP growth from the government shutdown will likely lead to about 200K fewer jobs at the end of the year than we previously forecast.
- The FOMC should consider lowering its unemployment rate threshold for an interest rate hike to 6.0 percent or lower.
- With the current sluggish pace of “marginally attached workers” returning to the labor force (200K in the last year), it would take another five years to get back to a normal level.
Check out this week’s US Outlook Report for my complete analysis.