U.S. Outlook: Encouraging signs of growth still evident
Chief Economist
“Better than expected” is a phrase you will hear often about this October’s economic data. Is the U.S. economy on the cusp of a meaningful acceleration?
Below is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Nov. 22, 2013. (Note: This report covers two weeks; there will not be a report issued on Nov. 29.)
Key observations:- Good October retail sales and slowing jobless claims show U.S. growth surviving the government shutdown.
- Record high stock prices, falling gas prices, and a lower rate of job loss are helping spur consumer spending and confidence.
- U.S. economy may be on the cusp of a meaningful acceleration.
- Fed could taper in January if monthly payroll gains exceed 200K in November and December.
- Large Q3-to-Q4 inventory swing will mask economic acceleration in Q4 GDP report.
To read my full report, see this two-week version of my U.S. Outlook. Happy Thanksgiving!
