2014 U.S. Outlook: Firing on all cylinders

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

In this “special edition” of my weekly U.S. Outlook, I forecast economic developments we’re likely to see in the coming year.

graph of GDP forecast for 2014The U.S. consumer will drive economic expansion in 2014 for the first time since the “Great Recession.”

Below is a brief summary of my analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Dec. 13, 2013.

Key observations:
  • U.S. employers will create 2.6 million jobs from Q4 2013 to Q4 2014.
  • There is a good chance the unemployment rate will hit 6.5% at the end of 2014.
  • Wealth effect in 2013-14 is set to spur consumer spending.
  • Household debt burden is at record lows.
  • Fed could lower employment threshold to 6.0% on strong jobs growth.

Read the full 2014 U.S. Outlook report here.


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