U.S. Outlook: Downside tail-risks diminish for 2014
Better-than-expected retail sales in November and upward revisions to prior months are adding to the optimistic picture we’ve been painting for 2014.
- Strong consumer and housing data to fuel Q4 GDP of 2.1%.
- Budget deal and Fed tapering decision remove downside risks for economy in 2014.
- Rapid rise in long-term rates on Fed tapering in 2014 could hurt housing, autos, and business spending.
- The Dec. 28 end to long-term jobless benefits could become a GDP drag in 2014.
- California to feel biggest hit from end of long-term unemployment benefits.