U.S. Outlook: Downside tail-risks diminish for 2014

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Better-than-expected retail sales in November and upward revisions to prior months are adding to the optimistic picture we’ve been painting for 2014.

gdp_122013Below is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Dec. 20, 2013.

Key observations:
  • Strong consumer and housing data to fuel Q4 GDP of 2.1%.
  • Budget deal and Fed tapering decision remove downside risks for economy in 2014.
  • Rapid rise in long-term rates on Fed tapering in 2014 could hurt housing, autos, and business spending.
  • The Dec. 28 end to long-term jobless benefits could become a GDP drag in 2014.
  • California to feel biggest hit from end of long-term unemployment benefits.

Click here to read my full report.

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