U.S. Outlook: Downside tail-risks diminish for 2014

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

Better-than-expected retail sales in November and upward revisions to prior months are adding to the optimistic picture we’ve been painting for 2014.

gdp_122013 [1]Below is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Dec. 20, 2013.

Key observations:
  • Strong consumer and housing data to fuel Q4 GDP of 2.1%.
  • Budget deal and Fed tapering decision remove downside risks for economy in 2014.
  • Rapid rise in long-term rates on Fed tapering in 2014 could hurt housing, autos, and business spending.
  • The Dec. 28 end to long-term jobless benefits could become a GDP drag in 2014.
  • California to feel biggest hit from end of long-term unemployment benefits.

Click here to read my full report [2].


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URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2013/12/20/downside-tail-risks-diminish-for-2014/

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[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/gdp_122013.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report: https://cdn.shoutlet.com/file/10476/1104299.pdf

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