U.S. Outlook: Improving trade balance is a game changer

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

A major shift in the U.S. trade deficit could signal faster U.S. economic growth this year.

chart of trade deficitBelow is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Jan. 10, 2014.

Key observations:
  • Improving U.S. trade balance is a sustainable, long-term trend.
  • U.S. energy production & slowing domestic usage is a game-changer for U.S. trade outlook.
  • An oil boom is lifting economies from North Dakota to Texas.
  • 2014 import growth will stay below rates seen in past consumer-driven expansions.
  • U.S. trade deficit should improve in 2014 to 2.4% of GDP vs. 3% in Q3 2013.

Read my full report here.

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