U.S. Outlook: Jump in inventories nicks Q1 GDP forecast
The recent good news about GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 contained a surprise that has lowered my forecast for Q1 growth this year.
- Q4 rapid inventory growth to pull down Q1 GDP.
- Slow U.S. growth turned into a rapid sprint in second half of 2013.
- Q4 data suggests consumer spending broadening to nondurables and services.
- US export growth likely to slow a bit in Q1.
- Weak Q4 residential construction data clouds housing outlook.
- Bank of the West lowers Q1 GDP to 2.1% on Q4 inventory build.