U.S. Outlook: Jump in inventories nicks Q1 GDP forecast

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

The recent good news about GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 contained a surprise that has lowered my forecast for Q1 growth this year.

econ_GDP_graph [1]Below is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Jan. 31, 2014.

Key observations:
  • Q4 rapid inventory growth to pull down Q1 GDP.
  • Slow U.S. growth turned into a rapid sprint in second half of 2013.
  • Q4 data suggests consumer spending broadening to nondurables and services.
  • US export growth likely to slow a bit in Q1.
  • Weak Q4 residential construction data clouds housing outlook.
  • Bank of the West lowers Q1 GDP to 2.1% on Q4 inventory build.

Click here to read my full report [2].

 


Article printed from Bank of the West: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com

URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2014/01/31/u-s-outlook-jump-in-inventories-nicks-q1-gdp-forecast/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/econ_GDP_graph.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report: https://cdn.shoutlet.com/file/10476/1241620.pdf

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