U.S. Outlook: Consumers stay home in January

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Bad weather, lackluster income growth, and reduced personal savings led to a January consumer spending strike.

graph of consumer spendingBelow is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Feb. 14, 2014.

Key observations:
  • January retail slump is just a temporary pause.
  • We lower Q1 GDP estimate to 1.9% from 2.1% on weak retail sales.
  • We also lower 2014 GDP estimate to 2.8% from 3%.
  • Consumers are getting less shy about taking on new revolving debt.
  • Small businesses appear unfazed by near-term softness.


Click here to read my full report.

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