U.S. Outlook: Jobs rebound, though problems remain

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Looks like we can stop talking about the weather — for now.

Better February job gains and a rapid decline in initial jobless claim so far for March gives a new hope and healthy boost to the recovering U.S. economy, though several labor market indicators remain weak.

Graph of declining labor force participation rate.Below are brief highlights of my weekly economic analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on March 28, 2014.

Key observations:
  • Jobless claims trend contributes to our forecast of 195K new jobs in March.
  • At current pace of job growth, U.S. will reach pre-recession peak of nonfarm employment in 2-3 months.
  • Tectonic changes in the labor force participation rate are giving Fed caution on interest rates.
  • Depressingly high average duration of unemployment remains a tell-tale sign of lingering labor market weakness.
  • Civilian employment-population ratio leads Yellen to gradually de-emphasize the jobless rate as a benchmark for ending Fed’s accommodative monetary policy.

Click here to read my full report.

Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.