U.S. Outlook: Jobs rebound, though problems remain
Looks like we can stop talking about the weather — for now.
Better February job gains and a rapid decline in initial jobless claim so far for March gives a new hope and healthy boost to the recovering U.S. economy, though several labor market indicators remain weak.
- Jobless claims trend contributes to our forecast of 195K new jobs in March.
- At current pace of job growth, U.S. will reach pre-recession peak of nonfarm employment in 2-3 months.
- Tectonic changes in the labor force participation rate are giving Fed caution on interest rates.
- Depressingly high average duration of unemployment remains a tell-tale sign of lingering labor market weakness.
- Civilian employment-population ratio leads Yellen to gradually de-emphasize the jobless rate as a benchmark for ending Fed’s accommodative monetary policy.