U.S. Outlook: Gauging the impact of a housing slowdown

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The plunge in new home sales during March caused a lot of buzz this week. It feels to me more like a cyclical change happening, rather than a weather-related shock.

Graph of monthly home supply in the U.S.For more on the latest economic developments to watch, see higlighhts of my weekly economic analysis below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on April 25, 2014.

Key observations:
  • Something troubling may be going on with housing demand.
  • New home sales are having difficulty building on last year’s healthy sales pace.
  • We’ve seen an incredible jump in home inventory in just two short months.
  • The housing lull should have little effect on the economy, rates, or Fed policy for now.
  • The Fed could become more sensitive to the risk to home values and the economy if housing demand continues to languish.

Click here to read my full report.


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