U.S. Outlook: Updating our virtuous cycle checklist

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Economists have been trying to spot a pro-growth virtuous cycle in the current economic expansion, and now we believe it’s near.

Graph showing latest dip in jobless claimsWe make our case in this week’s U.S. Outlook report, starting with today’s labor market news.

Highlights of my weekly economic analysis are below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Nov. 7.

Key observations:
  • The current 5.8% unemployment rate puts U.S. close to being a fully employed economy.
  • Third quarter productivity growth released earlier this week easily beat consensus expectations, and the second quarter’s productivity growth was revised up as well.
  • Jobs, productivity, and wages are aligned for growth. So what’s missing?
  • We have not yet seen full follow-through from the U.S. consumer.


Click here to read my full report.

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