U.S. Outlook: Updating our virtuous cycle checklist

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

Economists have been trying to spot a pro-growth virtuous cycle in the current economic expansion, and now we believe it’s near.

Graph showing latest dip in jobless claims [1]We make our case in this week’s U.S. Outlook report [2], starting with today’s labor market news.

Highlights of my weekly economic analysis are below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Nov. 7.

Key observations:
  • The current 5.8% unemployment rate puts U.S. close to being a fully employed economy.
  • Third quarter productivity growth released earlier this week easily beat consensus expectations, and the second quarter’s productivity growth was revised up as well.
  • Jobs, productivity, and wages are aligned for growth. So what’s missing?
  • We have not yet seen full follow-through from the U.S. consumer.

 

Click here to read my full report [2].

Article printed from Bank of the West: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com

URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2014/11/07/u-s-outlook-updating-virtuous-cycle-checklist/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/graph_jobless_lows_110714.jpg

[2] this week’s U.S. Outlook report: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_11_07_14.pdf

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.