U.S. Outlook: Labor market recovery not so fast & furious

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We are starting to see a more sobering picture of the labor market.

Graph showing slow dip in under-employed numbers.The weak March payroll report and the downward revisions over the past two months add another element of doubt to baseline forecasts (see the 5 telling charts in the link below).

For more on what this means and other economic developments this week, see my full analysis. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on April 10.

Key observations:
  • The goods-producing side of the economy is where the job weakness has surfaced.
  • The recent softening in the labor market should push the rate hike from the Fed into September.
  • A growth rebound is still the most likely course ahead for the U.S. economy.
  • The Federal Reserve now thinks 5.0% or 5.1% may be the natural rate of unemployment, leaving us well shy of that mark today at 5.5%.

 

Click here to read my full report.

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