U.S. Outlook: The economy is muddling along

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Muddling through — that’s kind of how the U.S. economy’s performance has felt over the last six months.Graph showing the US Economic Surprise Index

A worsening trade performance and declines in business investment and industrial production have dominated the economic landscape.

For more on this and other economic developments this week, see my full analysis. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on May 22.

Key observations:
  • U.S. economic releases have been running about 0.8 standard deviations below normal.
  • The U.S. economy has not been alone in missed economic expectations, with China standing out as consistently performing below expectations.
  • More home-building and consumer spending is expected in the second half of the year, but not enough to wipe away the poor start to the year.
Click here to read my full report.

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  • Anonymous says:

    The NY Times quoted you as saying “More and more folks are coming around to the view that the long-term growth rate of the American economy is 2 percent, at best. We can’t sustain 3 or 4 percent growth for very long, so it’s two steps forward, one step back.”. You should have prefaced your statement by saying ” Because the US economy is being asphyxiated by oppressive regulation and rules handed down by a government set on the destruction of the middle class…”
    Now this would have made total sense. You should try telling the truth in your blog and maybe then someone will read it. 🙂

    Reply | 5 years ago

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