U.S. Outlook: More signs of a stronger second half

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. economic data continue to improve, and the near-term outlook appears to be shaping up pretty close to our forecast expectations.Graph showing homebuilder confidence at expansion highs in June 2015

We still anticipate the first Fed rate hike could come as soon as September.

For more on this and other developments this week, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on June 19.

Key observations:
  • The rebound so far is being driven primarily by improving consumer spending and residential construction activity.
  • Wage growth already appears to be lifting as the labor market tightens.
  • In May, building permits hit their highest level since before the Great Recession.
  • Export growth is also expected to snap back from the first-quarter West Coast port slowdown.

Click here to read my full report.

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