U.S. Outlook: Remain calm and carry on
Despite recent misses on retail sales and nonfarm payrolls, as well as market-rattling events overseas, we remain steadfast in our belief in our second-half rebound forecast for the U.S. economy.
For more on this and other developments this week, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on July 17.Key observations:
- The drop in June retail sales was likely just a blip after a very strong 1% monthly gain in May.
- Adding fuel to the flames of consumer spending is a housing market rebound that is showing no signs of slowing down.
- Despite financial market volatility in July, more regions of the world have started to see positive economic surprises.
- Our inventory of downside risks for the U.S. economy is smaller than it has been in years.