U.S. Outlook: More signs of weakness in global production

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We received more confirmation this week that global manufacturing activity in September continues to slow, though there are no clear signs, yet, of a global recession.

Graph showing quarterly GDP performance, both actual and forecastAt the same time, global inflation is slipping.

For more on this and what these signs of weakness may mean, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Sept. 25.

Key observations:
  • Producer prices are contracting steadily in Europe, Japan, China, and the United States.
  • Delayed action from the Fed (on raising interest rates) should weaken the U.S. dollar and stabilize commodity prices, all else being equal.
  • We are trimming our business investment forecasts for the next six quarters.
  • Consumers will continue to drive moderate economic growth in the United States.

 

Click here to read my full report.

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