U.S. Outlook: What to expect in 2016

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

In this week’s U.S. Outlook report, we give you a little preview of what you can expect from the U.S. economy and interest rates in 2016.

Graph showing annual GDP growth or declinesOn the surface, we don’t expect to see much of a change in the rate of overall U.S. economic growth.

Key observations:
  • On a year-on-year basis, real GDP is expected to slow from 2.5% estimated for 2015 to 2.4% in 2016.
  • An increase in average hourly earnings growth into the 3.0% range is entirely possible by the end of 2016.
  • Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates this month, and three additional rate hikes will occur in 2016.
  • Expect more dollar appreciation and continued low oil prices.
For more, see my full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Dec. 4.

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