U.S. Outlook: A few modest misses won’t deter a Fed hike
The last full week of U.S. economic releases — before what is arguably the biggest FOMC meeting in nine years — came in on the underwhelming side.
Highlights of my weekly analysis are below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Dec. 11.Key observations:
- The NFIB small business index sank in November to 94.8, from 96.1 in October. This reflects a souring mood of small business owners about the outlook of the U.S. economy.
- Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% in October; not necessarily a bad thing for the economic outlook.
- Markets have nearly fully priced in a December rate hike from the Fed at this point.
- Next week’s FOMC meeting will true up market interest expectations for 2016 and set the investment themes for 2016.