U.S. Outlook: 2016 comes in like a lion

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s the New Year’s hangover that never ends. Granted we are only about a week into 2016, but so far it’s been a doozy.

Graph showing the dip in world market capital after the China sell-offChina’s Shanghai stock market plunged 7% twice this week after tripping new circuit breakers designed to staunch market panic, igniting a global stock market sell-off that erased some $3 trillion off of global equity market capitalization.

For more on the China market fallout, see highlights of my analysis below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Jan. 8.

Key observations:
  • Since last summer, global stock markets have erased about 11.2 trillion dollars in stock market capitalization.
  • The rate of decline in freight traffic in China from a year ago is now double the rate China experienced at the height of the Great Recession.
  • The gap between the on-shore and off-shore yuan is wider now than during the September swoon, suggesting more Chinese currency devaluation ahead.
  • This game of competitive currency devaluation tends to be a zero-sum game.
Click here to read my full report.

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