U.S. Outlook: 2016 comes in like a lion
It’s the New Year’s hangover that never ends. Granted we are only about a week into 2016, but so far it’s been a doozy.
China’s Shanghai stock market plunged 7% twice this week after tripping new circuit breakers designed to staunch market panic, igniting a global stock market sell-off that erased some $3 trillion off of global equity market capitalization.
For more on the China market fallout, see highlights of my analysis below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Jan. 8.Key observations:
- Since last summer, global stock markets have erased about 11.2 trillion dollars in stock market capitalization.
- The rate of decline in freight traffic in China from a year ago is now double the rate China experienced at the height of the Great Recession.
- The gap between the on-shore and off-shore yuan is wider now than during the September swoon, suggesting more Chinese currency devaluation ahead.
- This game of competitive currency devaluation tends to be a zero-sum game.