U.S. Outlook: A market swoon or a Black Swan?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

This was the week for cataclysmic predictions from equity analysts.

Graph showing the volatility index trends over past 5 years.While I remain concerned about the economic, financial, and policy events transpiring over in China, I am inclined to conclude this is just another market swoon in the United States.

For more analysis, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 15.

Key observations:
  • The VIX index, a measure of stock market volatility, remains elevated at around 25, which is lower than other recent market disruptions.
  • Economic data in the Eurozone and Japan are generally outperforming economist expectations.
  • The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims has been slowly rising since the end of October.
Click here to read my full report.

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