U.S. Outlook: Keep one eye on the fundamentals
Periods of high financial market volatility and plunging oil prices like we have seen so far this year have a way of playing on your emotions.
For more analysis of what’s happening in the economy, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 22.Key observations:
- We are expecting a weak figure of the Q4 real GDP on Friday — our current estimate is 0.8% growth.
- Recent construction reports suggest another contraction in non-residential construction.
- This isn’t the beginning of the end of the U.S. expansion. Real personal income growth is running well ahead of spending.
- From a consumer perspective, the level of national gasoline prices has hardly looked better at $1.91 per gallon.