U.S. Outlook: Keep one eye on the fundamentals

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

Periods of high financial market volatility and plunging oil prices like we have seen so far this year have a way of playing on your emotions.

Graph showing rises and falls - especially recently - in U.S. gas prices. [1]It’s important to remember that the stock market and the oil market are not the U.S. economy.

For more analysis of what’s happening in the economy, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 22.

Key observations:
  • We are expecting a weak figure of the Q4 real GDP on Friday — our current estimate is 0.8% growth.
  • Recent construction reports suggest another contraction in non-residential construction.
  • This isn’t the beginning of the end of the U.S. expansion. Real personal income growth is running well ahead of spending.
  • From a consumer perspective, the level of national gasoline prices has hardly looked better at $1.91 per gallon.

Click here to read my full report. [2]


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URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2016/01/22/u-s-outlook-keep-one-eye-on-the-fundamentals/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/graph_gasprices_012216.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report.: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_01_22_16.pdf

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