U.S. Outlook: Soothing signs of economic growth
New economic data and a tentative stabilization in crude oil prices provide more evidence that economic contraction in the near term is unlikely.
For more analysis what’s happening in the economy, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 19.Key observations:
- Q4 2015 was the worst quarter for industrial production since the end of the Great Recession.
- We affirm our above 2.0% real GDP growth forecast for Q1 2016.
- If crude oil prices continue improving, we might see some calming in the global equity markets that have been quite volatile lately.
- Another comforting data release was the weekly initial jobless claims that unexpectedly fell to the lowest reading since November.