U.S. Outlook: U.S. growth has slowed considerably. Why?
The first-quarter 2016 advance GDP headline came in at a disappointing 0.5%, following 1.4% growth in Q4 2015.
For more details about what’s going on, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 29.Key observations:
- Without strong evidence that the U.S. consumer is doing fine, Fed policy makers will be hesitant to raise interest rates in the quarters to come.
- Durable goods consumption is near a three-year low.
- Goods exports suffered from an annualized decline of 3.4%, and services dropped a mild 0.9%.
- We remain optimistic about the U.S. consumer, given near-maximum employment and a recent rise in real disposable personal income.