U.S. Outlook: A rock solid U.S. employment report for June
A hot June employment report belies weak U.S. job growth in April and May, and it’s an important support for the second-quarter recovery in consumer spending and GDP growth we are forecasting.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 8.Key observations:
- It will likely take more than one month of better job gains to convince the FOMC that another interest rate hike is warranted.
- It is important to note that this employment report reflects U.S. economic reality before the U.K. vote.
- My view is that a December 2016 rate hike is still on the table and actually quite possible.
- Just a few more employment reports like June’s, and genuine optimism could break out.
See Scott’s latest column in Forbes: “Hey Janet — Keep and Eye on Manufacturing”