U.S. Outlook: U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat
Just when you thought the economic doldrums would last forever, the U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 22.Key observations:
- U.S. economic reports haven’t surpassed analyst expectations this consistently since 2014.
- Initial jobless claims so far for July suggest the labor market momentum is continuing into late summer.
- The three-month moving average of real retail sales (i.e., retail sales subtracting out the effects of inflation) increased at an impressive 4.4% pace.
- We continue to expect in our baseline forecast one rate hike in December from the Fed and another quarter-point increases coming in 2017.