U.S. Outlook: Q3 is off to a good start
The July FOMC minutes released this week revealed a cautious Fed in the wake of the Brexit vote.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 19.Key observations:
- U.S. economic data continue to impress, leading us to slightly bump up our estimates for real GDP and consumers spending growth in Q3.
- Our estimate for real consumer spending in Q3 is now 3% annualized, with real GDP growth at 2.9%.
- Looking into the near-term economic future, the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators provide a soothing balm.
- I think the U.S. economy remains on track for a December Fed funds rate hike from the FOMC.