U.S. Outlook: Q3 is off to a good start

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The July FOMC minutes released this week revealed a cautious Fed in the wake of the Brexit vote.

chart showing rise & fall of weekly jobless claims for past 15 years or soConcerns regarding a persistent undershoot on inflation and risks to growth abroad still weigh heavy on some FOMC member minds, yet most saw the downside risks to the U.S. economy as diminishing.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 19.

Key observations:
  • U.S. economic data continue to impress, leading us to slightly bump up our estimates for real GDP and consumers spending growth in Q3.
  • Our estimate for real consumer spending in Q3 is now 3% annualized, with real GDP growth at 2.9%.
  • Looking into the near-term economic future, the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators provide a soothing balm.
  • I think the U.S. economy remains on track for a December Fed funds rate hike from the FOMC.
Click here to read my full report.

Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.