U.S. Outlook: September FOMC rate hike — a go or no go?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Several prominent Fed governors have tried in recent weeks to prepare markets for a near-term 0.25 percentage point rate hike.

Graph showing recent rise in job openings.In the next breath, they talk about a lower neutral Fed funds rate than we have seen in the past.

For more on what this could possibly mean, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 9.

Key observations:
  • The much-feared financial contagion from the U.K. Brexit vote has been more limited than expected so far.
  • We believe another rate hike from the FOMC at the Sept. 21 meeting would be a risky policy move and premature.
  • There are already growing signs the U.S. economy may be cooling down in August into September.
  • The summer bounce the U.S. economy got in June and July may be short-lived.

Click here to read my full report.

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