U.S. Outlook: Follow the leading indicators

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve, an anecdotal report of economic conditions across the country, revealed modest to moderate economic growth in 11 of 12 Federal Reserve districts from late August to early October.

Graph showing expectations of probably rates hikes each month for the next year.Labor markets remained tight across the country, and retail sales increased in the majority of districts.

For a look at more developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 21.

Key observations:
  • The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index has been growing at a steady monthly pace since April on a three-month moving average basis.
  • The gains we are seeing in the leading indicators index suggests a pickup in U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter.
  • There is nothing in the latest Beige Book report that would keep the Fed from raising rates again in December.
  • The possibility of an economic or financial shock around the Presidential election on Nov. 8 appears less and less likely.

Click here to read my full report.

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