U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year
Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.
For more, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 18.Key observations:
- In response to robust retail sales in October, we have revised our real consumer spending forecast for the fourth quarter up to 2.3% from 2.0%.
- Housing starts exploded higher last month, rising a massive 26% on the month.
- The Fed funds futures current probability of a December rate hike from the Fed is at a near-certain 96% today.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 235K last week from 254K the week before, the lowest level since the summer of 1973.