U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.Most telling in my mind is the U-turn in real retail sales as consumer confidence builds on a tightening labor market and rising incomes.

For more, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 18.

Key observations:
  • In response to robust retail sales in October, we have revised our real consumer spending forecast for the fourth quarter up to 2.3% from 2.0%.
  • Housing starts exploded higher last month, rising a massive 26% on the month.
  • The Fed funds futures current probability of a December rate hike from the Fed is at a near-certain 96% today.
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 235K last week from 254K the week before, the lowest level since the summer of 1973.

Click here to read my full report.

Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.