U.S. Outlook: Small business confidence catches fire

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Small businesses appear downright euphoric about the prospects of a Trump Administration and Republican-controlled Congress taking the reins in Washington.

Graph showing recent spike in small business optimismThe prospects of tax cuts and a deregulation agenda appear to have spurred a nearly unprecedented surge in small business optimism last month.

For more, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 13.

Key observations:
  • The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Confidence Index jumped 7.4 points in December, the highest monthly increase since 1980.
  • Small business sales expectations haven’t been this uniformly positive since October 2005.
  • Small business confidence has been notably absent through this expansion. There have been false dawns in the past.
  • My gut tells me the jump in small business confidence last month was more of a small business wish than current reality.

Click here to read my full report.

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