U.S. Outlook: Feeling good — is it the stock market or the economy?
Investors have gotten extremely comfortable with the economic environment and outlook — some would say the mood is positively complacent.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 24.Key observations:
- I would argue the market has gotten a bit ahead of the economic reality.
- We still forecast Q1 GDP growth of around 2.1%, pretty close to the expansion average growth rate of 1.8%.
- Industrial and personal/household data have actually undershot expectations.
- The economic releases for next week should show a modestly improving economy.