U.S. Outlook: Feeling good — is it the stock market or the economy?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors have gotten extremely comfortable with the economic environment and outlook — some would say the mood is positively complacent.

Graph showing recent decline in the CBOE volatility index.It’s not only stock investors; bond investors are not risk-averse today, either.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 24.

Key observations:
  • I would argue the market has gotten a bit ahead of the economic reality.
  • We still forecast Q1 GDP growth of around 2.1%, pretty close to the expansion average growth rate of 1.8%.
  • Industrial and personal/household data have actually undershot expectations.
  • The economic releases for next week should show a modestly improving economy.

Click here to read my full report.

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