U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March
Despite plunging initial jobless claims and a robust ADP employment report for March, the nonfarm payroll report gave us a little head fake this morning.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 7.Key observations:
- Special factors like Winter Storm Stella likely held back payroll gains in a number of major job categories.
- The three-month moving average payroll gain of 178K jobs a month is probably a better reflection of the underlying pace of job creation in the U.S. economy today.
- The U6 measure of unemployment, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell below 9% for the first time in this expansion.
- We are pushing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from the Fed to June from September.