U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

U.S. economic indicators have been throwing off mixed messages.

Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index [1]

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 14.

Key observations:

  • It may be too late to expect much of any bounce in the hard data indexes from the burst of confidence since November.
  • Confidence measures could correct lower in the months ahead rather than for the U.S. economy to see a strong acceleration in growth.
  • Our GDP growth estimate for Q1 slipped below 1.0% annualized this week.
  • We are currently forecasting a below-consensus rebound in GDP growth in Q2 of 2.4%.

Click here to read my full report. [2]

Article printed from Bank of the West: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com

URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2017/04/14/u-s-outlook-hard-vs-soft-data-conundrum-revisited/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/outlookgraph.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report.: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_4_14_17.pdf

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.