U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise
Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.Key observations:
- President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
- Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
- Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
- This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.