U.S. Outlook: Job creation disappoints in May

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.

Graph showing month-over-month trends in US job creation. [1]The three-month moving average of job creation slipped to just 121,000. Recent job-creation performance is a clear step down from where we have been.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 2.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%) has now dropped by a half a percentage point since the beginning of the year.
  • It was the 429,000-person drop in the labor force that pushed the unemployment rate lower last month.
  • My take is the FOMC will likely look past today’s less-than-ideal payroll report and move forward with the rate hike in June.
  • The fed funds futures probability of a September rate hike from the Fed sank to just 26.4% this morning.

Click here to read my full report. [2]


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URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2017/06/02/u-s-outlook-job-creation-disappoints-may/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/graph_nonfarmjobs_060217.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report.: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_6_02_17.pdf

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