U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.

Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 16.

Key observations:
  • The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
  • Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
  • The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
  • Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.

Click here to read my full report.

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