U.S. Outlook: Job growth back on track in June

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

June nonfarm growth easily surpassed analysts’ expectations, increasing by 222K jobs on the month.

Chart showing growth in various job sectors in June.Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 7.

Key observations:
  • As long as the U.S. economy can continue to put up job numbers like this, the FOMC will remain on its rate-hike and balance-sheet-reduction schedules this year.
  • Our forecast on Fed monetary policy going forward is unchanged, given this new labor market information.
  • If there was any disappointment, it was in average hourly earnings.
  • Without stronger wage growth, it is unlikely we will see sustained acceleration in consumer price inflation anytime soon.

Click here to read my full report.

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