U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.But will it be enough to distract investors from the near-term political risks coming from Washington?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 25.

Key observations:
  • Job growth is sufficiently strong that the U.S. unemployment rate could drop again to an expansion low of 4.2% in August.
  • Many FOMC members could see this as a reason to stick with the plan of one more rate hike before end of the year, despite inflation holding below their targets.
  • For Q2 GDP, we are forecasting an upward revision of the initial 2.6% growth rate to an even stronger 2.9% annualized pace.
  • The U.S. consumer is back in the driver’s seat when it comes to U.S. economic performance.


Click here to read my full report.


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