U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation
Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 25.Key observations:
- Job growth is sufficiently strong that the U.S. unemployment rate could drop again to an expansion low of 4.2% in August.
- Many FOMC members could see this as a reason to stick with the plan of one more rate hike before end of the year, despite inflation holding below their targets.
- For Q2 GDP, we are forecasting an upward revision of the initial 2.6% growth rate to an even stronger 2.9% annualized pace.
- The U.S. consumer is back in the driver’s seat when it comes to U.S. economic performance.