U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

While the damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma are still being tallied, we are making some adjustments to our GDP forecasts for Q3, Q4, and Q1 2018.

Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.We expect two-thirds of the lost growth from the hurricanes to be make up in the fourth quarter as economic activity returns and rebuilding begins.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 15.

Key observations:
  • Prior to the hurricanes we were forecasting 3.0% real GDP growth in Q3; we now expect 2.4% in the third quarter.
  • We pushed up our real GDP growth forecast for Q4 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6% from 2.2%.
  • We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.
  • Bond market inflation expectations remain well below historical norms.

Click here to read my full report.

 

 

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