U.S. Outlook: More signs of resilience
The fall hurricanes continue to taint U.S. economic data for September, but there is growing confidence in our forecast for an economic rebound in the fourth quarter.
- Initial jobless claims have already returned to pre-hurricane levels in October, implying a strong rebound in payroll growth.
- The odds are rising that the economy will overshoot full employment in 2018.
- Consumer spending should rebound above a 3.0% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter.
- For the first time in many forecasting cycles, the International Monetary Fund revised up its forecasts for global growth this week, to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.8% for 2018, instead of cutting them.