U.S. Outlook: Let the tax reform fight begin

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s been a long wait for investors, but we are finally getting some concrete details on the size and shape of the likely tax reform package that is moving through the House of Representatives.

US Capitol dome seen in middle distance on a sunny fall day with lawn and reddish-leaf trees in the foreground.In this report we will hit on some of the highlights of the bill and what they might mean for the economic and interest rate outlooks for next year.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 3.

Key observations:
  • Corporations will benefit the most from the tax reform, but whether that translates into a measurable increase in jobs, wages, and capital spending here in the U.S. is less clear.
  • The 20% excise tax on American subsidiaries of foreign companies could slow foreign investment in the United States.
  • More fiscal stimulus from Washington could tip the scales toward economic overheating, forcing the Fed to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets started.

Read my full report.

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