U.S. Outlook: Will consumers keep spending over the holidays?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Next week is the all-important kickoff of the holiday shopping season, with the four most important shopping days of the year.

Graph showing growth, declines in various retail sales categoriesWhat percentage of the population plans to shop during the Thanksgiving weekend that includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 17.

Key observations:
  • The retail sales data through October show a consumer who is ready and willing to spend this holiday season.
  • The fact that retail sales for October continued to climb after a huge gain in spending during September bodes well for holiday sales.
  • Income growth continues to lag consumer spending.
  • We are forecasting nearly 3% real consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
Read my full report.


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