U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The positive economic surprises keep coming for the U.S. economy.

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 1.

Key observations:
  • Both “soft” indicators, like PMI and consumer confidence indexes, and “hard” indicators, like housing and retail sales, are exceeding consensus expectations.
  • We expect a robust 217K jobs were created in November, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
  • Business equipment spending is coming back to life.
  • Maintaining this outperformance into 2018 will be extremely difficult.


Read my full report.


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