U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month. [1]This was well above consensus expectations of 180K jobs. The payroll report also contained a big surprise on hourly earnings data.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.

Key observations:
  • A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
  • The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.


Read my full report. [2]


Article printed from Bank of the West: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com

URL to article: https://changematters.bankofthewest.com/2018/02/02/u-s-outlook-still-goldilocks-expansion/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/graph_hourlyearning_020218.jpg

[2] Read my full report.: http://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_02_02_18.pdf

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.