U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?
It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.
The tea leaves on the U.S. economy have become harder to read as well.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 23.Key observations:
- The U.S. labor market continues to run hot. We look for the U.S. unemployment rate to move a tenth of a percentage point lower to 4.0% when the February jobs report is released.
- Existing home sales have dropped sharply for two consecutive months now.
- Economic indicators are still generally beating analysts’ expectations, but not by as much as they were just a month ago.
- Our estimate for Q1 GDP growth slips to 2.0%, as real consumer spending continues to lag the fourth quarter growth rate.