U.S. Outlook: What you need to know
Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.
Real consumer spending grew at a sizzling 4.0% annualized rate, the best quarterly performance in three years, according the last week’s third revision of Q4 GDP.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 30.Key observations:
- We are raising our forecast for a convincing rebound in real consumer spending in the second quarter to a solid 2.7% annualized rate, with GDP growth accelerating to an above trend 2.6% pace.
- Get ready for another strong jobs report for March. We expect a net gain of another 245K nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate that drops to 4.0%.
- We expect stronger average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%, up from a 0.1% gain last month.